Releasing suspects before trial does not increase crime rates, experts say

Crime has emerged as a powerful election issue, with one of the main issues surrounding bail. Which suspects should be incarcerated before trial, which suspects should be released on bail, and for how much.

Some conservatives argue that lenient bail policies put suspects back on the streets who are likely to commit crimes by the time they go to trial, or who may skip bail altogether. There is. But some progressives say the research doesn’t support that claim. They argue that it is unfair to detain defendants because they cannot afford to post a financial bond, and point out that such defendants are disproportionately Black, Latino, and low-income.

Illinois, New Jersey, and New Mexico are moving away from the use of monetary bonds. But other states, including Georgia and New York, have gone in the opposite direction and introduced stricter rules. Tennessee is considering a constitutional amendment that would give judges more discretion to deny bail amid concerns about rising crime rates.

Politicians on both sides of the debate often link bail policy to crime rates. But experts say doing so is problematic because much of the crime data used by states and cities is unreliable.

In reality, most crime data is too unreliable to pinpoint specific policies as the sole cause of increases or decreases in crime rates, experts say. Additionally, the bail system is often misunderstood as a form of punishment rather than a process for releasing individuals before trial under certain conditions.

Cash bail policies are under new scrutiny

Spurgeon Kennedy, deputy director of the Institute on Crime and Justice, a nonprofit criminal justice research organization, said, “This suggests that there is some kind of correlation or relationship between increased pretrial release rates and crime rates.” There’s nothing,” he said. Mr. Kennedy previously served as president of the National Association of Pretrial Services Agencies.

These misconceptions about crime can leave voters vulnerable to misinformation ahead of local and national elections.

“If you ask a typical person on the street, ‘Do you think crime has gone up or down in the last year?’ they’ll say, ‘Oh, it’s up.’ It’s gone up quite a bit.” But we did see a decrease in overall crime and violent crime,” Kennedy said. “So the facts don’t follow the argument. That’s unfortunate, because it makes it much easier to sweep this issue under the rug as a political football.”

Both chambers of the Georgia General Assembly passed a bill this month that would add 30 felonies and misdemeanors to the state’s list of bail-restricted crimes. This means people charged with these crimes will be required to post cash bail. Those include charges of unlawful assembly, extortion, domestic terrorism and marijuana possession.

The bill would also prohibit individuals or organizations from posting cash bail more than three times a year unless they establish themselves as bail bonds companies, and would severely limit charitable bail funds. The bill now heads to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s desk.

Some criminal justice advocates say the bill, if passed, would conflict with changes enacted in 2018 to the state’s legal system for people accused of misdemeanors. The law, sponsored by former Republican Gov. Nathan Deal, requires judges to consider a defendant’s financial situation when setting bail.

Supporters of the new bill, first introduced last year, say the measure is necessary to deter crime, support crime victims and hold repeat offenders accountable. State Sen. Randy Robertson, who sponsored the bill, said the bill focuses on people accused of violent crimes.

“Our focus is on trying to get nonviolent people back into the workforce and back into their families,” Robertson said in an interview. Robertson, a Republican, said the bill would also lead to a “dramatic reduction” in the state’s prison population by providing a path for organizations such as churches and nonprofits to set up as bail bond companies. insisted.

These organizations must meet the same legal requirements as bond companies, including undergoing background checks, paying fees, and having their applications approved by local sheriff’s departments.

But some opponents say it would lead to prison overcrowding and disproportionately harm low-income, Black and Hispanic communities. The ACLU of Georgia is threatening to sue the state for violating the Constitution if the bill is signed into law.

Mr Robertson said some of the criticisms raised were “rehashing complaints” he had heard over the past 25 or 30 years.

Robertson said: “There is no evidence, and independent research shows, that low bail, which allows judges to set bail arbitrarily, keeps a disproportionate number of people in custody.” Stated. “I don’t think that’s the case. [this bill] The third rail of constitutionality is not mentioned at all. ”

Pretrial data and research

However, several research studies suggest that setting bail is not effective in ensuring court appearances or improving public safety.

Pretrial policy experts say that being in jail for even a few days or weeks can cause people to lose housing or jobs and damage personal relationships. said Matt Alsdorf, deputy director of the policy center and co-director of the organization. Advancing pretrial policy and research projects.

“Even when viewed through the lens of public safety and crime prevention, the use of unnecessary detention has a negative impact,” he said.

Pretrial recidivism has long been studied by criminal justice experts. A 2013 study of more than 150,000 people incarcerated in Kentucky found that the longer someone was incarcerated, the more likely they were to be rearrested during the pretrial period and within the first two years after trial. found. The end of their case. The study also found that people who were detained for two or three days were 9% more likely to fail to appear in court than those who were detained for one day.

Additionally, a study published last year in Criminology & Public Policy found that black defendants were 34% more likely than white defendants to be recommended to be held until their case was resolved.

“The monetary bond system is a highly regressive system that effectively serves as a means of incarcerating people who are already disadvantaged,” Alsdorf said.

Widespread court backlog due to shortage of prosecutors and judges

Audits show that in places that have relaxed bail practices, pretrial prison populations typically decline as bail practices change. Some jurisdictions have also seen fewer arrests for certain types of crimes.

In Houston, a lawsuit alleging that Harris County’s misdemeanor bail practices are unconstitutional resulted in a settlement and consent decree in 2019. Counties are required to release most people charged with misdemeanors on personal bail, which means the defendant only has to promise to appear at their next court date. .

In the latest independent oversight report on the program starting in 2023, observers said the changes would “save Harris County and its residents millions of dollars and improve the lives of tens of thousands of people” and As a result, they wrote, “There was no increase in new crimes.” This is from someone who was arrested for a misdemeanor. ”

Brandon Garrett, the lead monitor and a Duke University law professor, said in an interview that racial disparities “disappeared overnight” after bail practices were relaxed. The monitors also found that misdemeanor arrests overall decreased by about 8% between 2019 and 2022.

“There was a real concern about racial disparities in the old cash bail system, but it’s pretty amazing how quickly those disparities disappeared in terms of who went to prison and who didn’t. That’s what happened,” Garrett said.

“deliberate and purposeful”

In 2017, New Jersey abolished the use of cash bail with an algorithmic tool that uses nine factors from a person’s criminal history to predict their likelihood of returning to court for a future hearing and maintaining their innocence. Supported certain public safety evaluations. Currently in pre-trial release.

The changes encouraged more “deliberate and deliberate” detention hearings, said a now-retired trial judge who was part of the committee that unanimously recommended switching to a more risk-based bail system. Reminds me of Martin Cronin.

Cronin, now a consultant with Pretrial Justice Solutions, LLC, said the state’s new system provides greater accountability and transparency.

“We’re looking at what is a permissible reason for detention and how that ties into the record for the individual defendant in front of us,” Cronin told Stateline. “There’s real accountability there. … It’s a fundamentally different process.”

Between 2015 and 2023, New Jersey’s pretrial prison population decreased by 27.2%, according to last year’s Criminal Justice Reform Statistics Report from the state Attorney’s Office.